We're getting a little tired of using the word "unprecedented," but no other word captures the recent trends in both deficit spending and money supply expansion. Also unprecedented are the stratospheric prices for cryptocurrencies. And there are good reasons to believe that these violations of precedence are not merely coincidental, but rather logically related to one another.
Last year we wrote a lot about the history of Emerging Market (EM) overperformance. That historically it tends to overperform developed markets; that it does not always overperform; the conditions under which it does overperform.
Remember early last year when oil prices 'went negative'?
Well, despite scary headlines, the actual prices themselves didn't go negative, but there certainly was a major drop in the value of oil. Markets often get the direction of the economy right, but they also can go too far.
We've been looking at various surveys and market valuation-based statistics that have a track record of being able to generally get the direction of the U.S. economy right. Now we're going to take a look at a few indicators that get the direction of the global economy right. Toward the top of our list is copper prices.