Literature’s second most famous hobbit, Bilbo Baggins, titled his memoirs There and Back Again. In it, he took a long trip down into the terrifying caves of a deep mountain (actually, two mountains) and came back home with a treasure. It is an extremely common literary theme: Down into the pit, and back out of the pit. It's common because good literature mimics real life stories, even financial ones.
We previously looked at inflation levels, and then at whether or not those inflation levels were due merely to the transient effects of the short bout of deflation which accompanied the deepest periods of the COVID shutdown. We found that inflation is high, and that this is not just an effect from the temporary distortions of COVID. So, despite predictions last year and earlier this year that inflation would be transitory, it has not transited away, but rather transitioned upwards.
We've been looking at how the idea of “The Wisdom of Crowds” can give us an edge when it comes to forecasting the economy. We've recently looked at two indicators which we believe help forecast U.S. growth and, so far, one indicator, based on copper prices, which we believe helps to forecast global growth.