We've been looking at various surveys and market valuation-based statistics that have a track record of being able to generally get the direction of the U.S. economy right. Now we're going to take a look at a few indicators that get the direction of the global economy right. Toward the top of our list is copper prices.
Forgive the levity of the title, but the sad passing of Sean Connery does call for a bit of a break from formality.
The villainous Goldfinger in the eponymous film captures Bond, straps him to a table, and points a laser at him. "You expect me to talk?" asks Bond. "No, I expect you to die," replies Goldfinger.
Investors have skin in the game. That means that when we are wrong and make the wrong allocations according to our error, we get punished. This does not logically imply that investors are always right. Bubbles seem to be a real thing. But it does mean that investors might have a more direct set of incentives when it comes to the economic outlook than, for example, pundits or people who are asked about their confidence levels in general opinion surveys.
We've seen that the recent recession and current recovery are different from anything we've seen in most of our lifetimes, and we've seen that the nature of this recession and recovery cycle has been that business did not slow down as much as would be expected given the normal pattern.